Week 5-Election Post

There are many swing states in the 2008 election. They are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, Indiana,Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

Nevada- Nevada is up for grabs because of the states tremendous growth. Which means its political views is constantly remaking itself.

Colorado-It is a swing state because there has been only one democratic presidential nominee since 1964 democratic presidential nominee that has carried the state. But a democratic surge since 2004 has led to a governor seat, a senate seat, 2 republican-held house seats and control of the legislature

New Mexico- The last two presidential elections have been breathtakingly close. Although New Mexico is leaning democratic, John McCain's moderate reputation on the enviroment still makes it a swing state

Missouri- Obama expects a big voter turnout in the states two largest cities St.Louis and Kansas City. But McCain hopes to have a strong showing in the out state, especially in conservative southwest.

Indiana-McCain holds a slight advantage in this state because of traditional republicans but a extremely high African-American voter turnout could make it a more competitive state for Obama

Ohio- Obama is struggling with the Appalachian Ohio- a key region Kerry ran poorly in 2004, the Republicans have struggled in Ohio in recent years.

Pennsylvania- No GOP has carried the state in 20 years, but McCain could carry that state but he would have to do well in populous, once republican suburbs of Philadelphia, where George Bush is very unpopular.

New Hampshire- New Hampshire seems to have a real affinity for the GOP Nominee, but recent trendlines are promising for democrats and Bob Barr could tip the balance

Virginia- Virginia has voted for the democratic nominee only once since 1948 but there has been an emergence of a democratic leaning Northern-Virginia.

North Carolina- Jimmy Carter, in 1976 was the last democrat to carry the state. But with the prospect of a large African-American turnout and democratic gains in the fastest growing areas of NC, Obama is doing better then expected.

Florida- Although it is the ideal republican state, there has been an increase in registered democrats that could give Obama an advantage, but he would have to do a lot of work.

I think the two most important states are Florida and Virginia. I think Obama will carry Virginia because although it has not voted Democrat since 1948, there has been an emergence in the democratic Northern Virginia that could give Obama the edge. Florida I am not sure of but I think Obama could take it because he did not campaign in this state in the primary yet in a cnn poll he is up 47% to 43%.