Friday, October 24, 2008
Week 5-Current Event
My current event is on how Joe Wurzelbacher, or Joe the Plumber. The most famous plumber in America plans to run for conservative talk radio host Laura Ingraham Friday he's considering a run for Congress in 2010. That would pit Wurzelbacher against longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur for Ohio's 9th district on the state’s northern border, which includes Toledo and Sandusky. Wurzelbacher's chances would likely be slim. Kaptur has served in the district for 25 years, and remains a popular figure there. She won reelection in 2006 with nearly 75 percent of the vote and is expected to easily sail through another reelection this year. Joe became famous after he questioned Obama's tax plan but a spokesperson for Kaptur said he is already off on the wrong foot, since Jeep just laid of 800 workers so embracing Bush-McCain economics is kind of a strange way to launch your campaign.
Week 5-Election Post
There are many swing states in the 2008 election. They are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, Indiana,Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
Nevada- Nevada is up for grabs because of the states tremendous growth. Which means its political views is constantly remaking itself.
Colorado-It is a swing state because there has been only one democratic presidential nominee since 1964 democratic presidential nominee that has carried the state. But a democratic surge since 2004 has led to a governor seat, a senate seat, 2 republican-held house seats and control of the legislature
New Mexico- The last two presidential elections have been breathtakingly close. Although New Mexico is leaning democratic, John McCain's moderate reputation on the enviroment still makes it a swing state
Missouri- Obama expects a big voter turnout in the states two largest cities St.Louis and Kansas City. But McCain hopes to have a strong showing in the out state, especially in conservative southwest.
Indiana-McCain holds a slight advantage in this state because of traditional republicans but a extremely high African-American voter turnout could make it a more competitive state for Obama
Ohio- Obama is struggling with the Appalachian Ohio- a key region Kerry ran poorly in 2004, the Republicans have struggled in Ohio in recent years.
Pennsylvania- No GOP has carried the state in 20 years, but McCain could carry that state but he would have to do well in populous, once republican suburbs of Philadelphia, where George Bush is very unpopular.
New Hampshire- New Hampshire seems to have a real affinity for the GOP Nominee, but recent trendlines are promising for democrats and Bob Barr could tip the balance
Virginia- Virginia has voted for the democratic nominee only once since 1948 but there has been an emergence of a democratic leaning Northern-Virginia.
North Carolina- Jimmy Carter, in 1976 was the last democrat to carry the state. But with the prospect of a large African-American turnout and democratic gains in the fastest growing areas of NC, Obama is doing better then expected.
Florida- Although it is the ideal republican state, there has been an increase in registered democrats that could give Obama an advantage, but he would have to do a lot of work.
I think the two most important states are Florida and Virginia. I think Obama will carry Virginia because although it has not voted Democrat since 1948, there has been an emergence in the democratic Northern Virginia that could give Obama the edge. Florida I am not sure of but I think Obama could take it because he did not campaign in this state in the primary yet in a cnn poll he is up 47% to 43%.
Nevada- Nevada is up for grabs because of the states tremendous growth. Which means its political views is constantly remaking itself.
Colorado-It is a swing state because there has been only one democratic presidential nominee since 1964 democratic presidential nominee that has carried the state. But a democratic surge since 2004 has led to a governor seat, a senate seat, 2 republican-held house seats and control of the legislature
New Mexico- The last two presidential elections have been breathtakingly close. Although New Mexico is leaning democratic, John McCain's moderate reputation on the enviroment still makes it a swing state
Missouri- Obama expects a big voter turnout in the states two largest cities St.Louis and Kansas City. But McCain hopes to have a strong showing in the out state, especially in conservative southwest.
Indiana-McCain holds a slight advantage in this state because of traditional republicans but a extremely high African-American voter turnout could make it a more competitive state for Obama
Ohio- Obama is struggling with the Appalachian Ohio- a key region Kerry ran poorly in 2004, the Republicans have struggled in Ohio in recent years.
Pennsylvania- No GOP has carried the state in 20 years, but McCain could carry that state but he would have to do well in populous, once republican suburbs of Philadelphia, where George Bush is very unpopular.
New Hampshire- New Hampshire seems to have a real affinity for the GOP Nominee, but recent trendlines are promising for democrats and Bob Barr could tip the balance
Virginia- Virginia has voted for the democratic nominee only once since 1948 but there has been an emergence of a democratic leaning Northern-Virginia.
North Carolina- Jimmy Carter, in 1976 was the last democrat to carry the state. But with the prospect of a large African-American turnout and democratic gains in the fastest growing areas of NC, Obama is doing better then expected.
Florida- Although it is the ideal republican state, there has been an increase in registered democrats that could give Obama an advantage, but he would have to do a lot of work.
I think the two most important states are Florida and Virginia. I think Obama will carry Virginia because although it has not voted Democrat since 1948, there has been an emergence in the democratic Northern Virginia that could give Obama the edge. Florida I am not sure of but I think Obama could take it because he did not campaign in this state in the primary yet in a cnn poll he is up 47% to 43%.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Week 4-Election Post
One of the polls is on the front page of usaelectionpolls.com and its labeled "John McCain is forced to play defense in 13 states. It shows that John McCain has to play defense in states that George Bush won by double digits in 2004. In the poll it shows that Illinois has given Obama a 24% increase in a seven day average. He is up 56% to McCain's 32%. It also shows that Obama has had a 4% increase to bring it up to 48%-45% in his favor in North Carolina, a key battleground state. Another poll on the same site shows the amount of people in favor to Obama and McCain. It shows some interesting information as it has Obama edging out McCain in Florida and Ohio by 49.1% to 46.46% and 48.8% to 46.0. These are key states for Republicans.
On a washingpost poll it shows that Mrk Warner leads James Gilmore by huge amounts. They took a poll by asking people who would they vote for if the senate election was held today. Warner was the ovbious winner with 61% and Gilmore had 31% and 9% other.
They have a big role in modern elections because most people now have a computer and polls can be easily reached in the internet and it gives voters information on candidates. It also shows public opinion. It has a major impact on elec ions. It can either be bad or good. It can be good that it shows what people are thinking off. But it also can go negative also. For example if early polls show an early winner it might discourage people that would vote for the winner becuase they might be thinking that their vote doesnt count because their candidate already won or lost and they can't do anything about it.
For the most part they are accurate only if they have a large sample size as to reduce the margin of error. But their is still always a margin of error becuase of many factors such as people lying or the poll can be biased itself so it might give people the wrong data.
On a washingpost poll it shows that Mrk Warner leads James Gilmore by huge amounts. They took a poll by asking people who would they vote for if the senate election was held today. Warner was the ovbious winner with 61% and Gilmore had 31% and 9% other.
They have a big role in modern elections because most people now have a computer and polls can be easily reached in the internet and it gives voters information on candidates. It also shows public opinion. It has a major impact on elec ions. It can either be bad or good. It can be good that it shows what people are thinking off. But it also can go negative also. For example if early polls show an early winner it might discourage people that would vote for the winner becuase they might be thinking that their vote doesnt count because their candidate already won or lost and they can't do anything about it.
For the most part they are accurate only if they have a large sample size as to reduce the margin of error. But their is still always a margin of error becuase of many factors such as people lying or the poll can be biased itself so it might give people the wrong data.
Current Event 4
My current even was on the fifth largest rebound in percentage history and the largest since the Great Depression. The Dow-Jones closed up with an 11.08% increase or 936.42 points. It also calmed down an eight day losing streak cause by concerns about a global recession. The British government said it is injecting capital directly into three troubled banks, while the U.S. Treasury is finalizing plans for a similar program that would spend $250 billion to buy ownership stakes in a broad range of banks. U.S. regulators are expected to announce an expanded response to the crisis today, including unlimited deposit insurance for non-interest-bearing accounts, such as checking and payroll accounts used by small businesses. Although the market has rebounded “the economic outlook remains weak, and a global recession is still likely, said” Win Thin, senior currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman. Also although falling below $80 a barrel for the first time in a year last week, oil prices also staged a rebound. The price of light, sweet crude jumped 4.5 percent, or $3.49, to settle at $81.19 a barrel.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Current Event 3
My current event was when U.S. officials put the rescue plan into effect. This was put into effect while concerns with the European banks started to fail and with growing concerns with a global recession. The market had a bad day as well, The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 10,000 for the first time in 4 years. At one point it fell 797 points. The impact was not only felt on U.S. markets as London's FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX 30 closed down more than 7 percent, while Paris's CAC 40 had lost 9 percent of its value. Germany is having its share of problems as well as they just stitched a $70 billion dollar plan to save a blue-chip commercial lender that was in danger of failing called Hypo Real Estate Holding AG. A rescue plan was announced but it quickly failed as the private banks that were part of the deal called it off because Hypo Real Estate’s liabilities were worse then expected
week 3- Election post
I chose the Virginia senate race. The race is between Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Jim Gilmore.
Mark Warner-Warner is a democratic politician and business man from Virginia. He is the immediate governer of Virginia. He is also the honorary chairman of the Forward Together Political action committee. Warner delievered the keynote speech at the National Democratic Convention. Warner's tax package effected a net tax increase of approximately $1.5 billion annually. Warner credited the additional revenues with saving the state's AAA bond rating, held at the time by only 5 other states, and allowing the single largest investment in K-12 education in Virginia history
Jim Gilmore- He served as the Attorney General of Virginia from 1994 to 1998, and was the Virginia governer from 1998 to 2002. In his first year as Governor, Gilmore pushed for car tax reduction legislation that was eventually passed by the Democrat-controlled General Assembly The legislation reduced car taxes on all cars valued less than $1,000, and phased out the tax on auto values over $1,000 as follows: 12.5% reduction in 1998; 25% reduction in 1999; 47.5% reduction in 2000; 70% reduction in 2001; 100% reduction in 2002. Beginning in 2001, Virginia's economy slowed and tax revenues flattened Gilmore also proposed and signed into law Virginia's first stand-alone Martin Luther King Holiday.As Governor, Gilmore signed into law legislation establishing a 24-hour waiting period and informed consent for women seeking an abortion, as well as a ban against partial birth abortion Gilmore increased funding for adoption services.
My issue- The most important issue I thinks is the energy crisis. Jim Gilmore has the same view on solving the energy crisis as John McCain and George Bush, he wants to continue off shore drilling. Mark Warner wants to use more alternative sources to break our addiction to foriegn oil.
Poll data- on most polls Warner has a sizeable lead. The Real Clear Politics average based on 23 other polls is 58.6% to Warner and 30.4% for Gilmore. The spread is Warner +28.2
Mark Warner-Warner is a democratic politician and business man from Virginia. He is the immediate governer of Virginia. He is also the honorary chairman of the Forward Together Political action committee. Warner delievered the keynote speech at the National Democratic Convention. Warner's tax package effected a net tax increase of approximately $1.5 billion annually. Warner credited the additional revenues with saving the state's AAA bond rating, held at the time by only 5 other states, and allowing the single largest investment in K-12 education in Virginia history
Jim Gilmore- He served as the Attorney General of Virginia from 1994 to 1998, and was the Virginia governer from 1998 to 2002. In his first year as Governor, Gilmore pushed for car tax reduction legislation that was eventually passed by the Democrat-controlled General Assembly The legislation reduced car taxes on all cars valued less than $1,000, and phased out the tax on auto values over $1,000 as follows: 12.5% reduction in 1998; 25% reduction in 1999; 47.5% reduction in 2000; 70% reduction in 2001; 100% reduction in 2002. Beginning in 2001, Virginia's economy slowed and tax revenues flattened Gilmore also proposed and signed into law Virginia's first stand-alone Martin Luther King Holiday.As Governor, Gilmore signed into law legislation establishing a 24-hour waiting period and informed consent for women seeking an abortion, as well as a ban against partial birth abortion Gilmore increased funding for adoption services.
My issue- The most important issue I thinks is the energy crisis. Jim Gilmore has the same view on solving the energy crisis as John McCain and George Bush, he wants to continue off shore drilling. Mark Warner wants to use more alternative sources to break our addiction to foriegn oil.
Poll data- on most polls Warner has a sizeable lead. The Real Clear Politics average based on 23 other polls is 58.6% to Warner and 30.4% for Gilmore. The spread is Warner +28.2
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Current Event-2
My current even was when the house rejected the rescue plan the first time it went through. I was surprised by that because I thought they had agreed on a solid plan. Apparantley that was not the case and the house rejected it. As a result stocks dropped to all time worst. They dropped as the rejection of the bill became apparent. What surprised me more was that no one would step up and give a real reason as why the bill failed, both sides just blamed each other. One of the most surprising comments was that America was on a slipper slope to socialism.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
I think the most national issue right now is the economy. I am not saying that the other issues might not be as important but to fix the others they all cone back to the economy. If they want to come up with different sources then oil then they need money for the programs. I also think it is important because it affects everybody, I was watching a CNN special after the failed rescue plan about how wall street affects normal citizens not just big corporations.
A local issue is the need to fix is one I just read about. It was about how more then 2 million adults in Virginia struggle with basic or below basic literacy skills. I think it needs to be fixed because these problems could be passed on to their children .
I think Obama won the debate. Both did well in some areas and not so well in others. Such as Obama had a clear economic portion but McCain did not. But McCain won points on his foreign affairs policy. A CBS poll had 55% to McCain and 49% to Obama on who would make better decisions on the war in Iraq. But the same poll had 68% to Obama 41% to McCain on who would make better decisions on the econmy. This was a poll on undecided voters. And 46% of undecided voters had a better opinion on Obama after the debate.
The electronic media has a very important role in the elections. Everyday we see ads from both sides attacking each other in an attempt to sway voters to either side. They are also trying to get the youth vote with the electronic media, a great example is the increase in the candidates using youtube to reach out to younger voters.
A local issue is the need to fix is one I just read about. It was about how more then 2 million adults in Virginia struggle with basic or below basic literacy skills. I think it needs to be fixed because these problems could be passed on to their children .
I think Obama won the debate. Both did well in some areas and not so well in others. Such as Obama had a clear economic portion but McCain did not. But McCain won points on his foreign affairs policy. A CBS poll had 55% to McCain and 49% to Obama on who would make better decisions on the war in Iraq. But the same poll had 68% to Obama 41% to McCain on who would make better decisions on the econmy. This was a poll on undecided voters. And 46% of undecided voters had a better opinion on Obama after the debate.
The electronic media has a very important role in the elections. Everyday we see ads from both sides attacking each other in an attempt to sway voters to either side. They are also trying to get the youth vote with the electronic media, a great example is the increase in the candidates using youtube to reach out to younger voters.
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